Data-Driven Pricing Analysis
9367 Hawk Nest Lane, Talon Bay, North Port FL 34287
North Port–Sarasota MSA · April 21, 2026
HVAC Updated 2016 (City Permit Confirmed) · 3BR / 2BA / 1,643 Sq Ft / Corner Lot
The City of North Port — Local Context & Market Position
North Port is not a small market on the edge of something bigger — it is the growth story of Southwest Florida. With a 2026 population of approximately 101,564, the city has grown 34.53% since the 2020 census and is currently expanding at a rate of 4.47% annually — one of the fastest sustained growth rates of any city in Florida. The North Port–Sarasota metro has been recognized by LinkedIn as one of the fastest-growing metros in the United States for resident in-migration, driven by retirees and remote workers relocating from the Northeast and Midwest.
North Port occupies a strategic position within Sarasota County: bordered by Venice to the north, Charlotte County to the south, and containing the entirety of Wellen Park — a master-planned community that ranked 8th nationally in new home sales in 2025 with 992 closings. That new construction pipeline creates both competition and validation: it confirms that demand for this geography is durable and that buyers are actively choosing the North Port–Sarasota corridor over alternatives. The median age in North Port is 49.3 years — with over 23,400 seniors among its residents — directly matching the buyer profile for the subject property.
Talon Bay sits at the intersection of three factors that define this market's most active buyer segment: proximity to Wellen Park's lifestyle amenities, access to Gulf beaches within 20 minutes, and gated maintenance-free living at a price point well below what comparable Wellen Park communities command when CDD fees are factored in. This is not a coincidence — it is the community's core value proposition, and the data confirms buyers recognize it.
Data Methodology — What Was Used and Why It Is Reliable
Most pricing conversations begin in the wrong place: Zillow Zestimates, active listing prices, or statewide trend reports. None of those reflect what buyers actually pay in this community, for this property type, in the current week. This analysis uses a layered methodology built exclusively on closed transaction data and locally reported market statistics:
| Source | What It Provides | Why It Was Used |
|---|---|---|
| Stellar MLS — Team Renick Weekly Sarasota County Snapshots March 1 – April 11, 2026 |
Week-by-week closed sales data segmented by city, property type (villa / condo / townhome / SFH), and price band. Includes median sold price, median days on market, and total closings per segment. | This is the only source that shows what buyers actually paid for villas specifically in North Port during the past six weeks — not what sellers asked, not what Zillow estimated. Six consecutive weeks of data eliminates single-week anomalies and reveals the consistent pattern that governs pricing velocity. |
| RASM — Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee February 2026 Statistical Release |
Official monthly market statistics for Sarasota County and the North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton MSA. Includes months of supply, list-to-sale ratios, cash buyer percentage, and median days to contract. | RASM is the authoritative data source for this MSA. Its statistics are used by appraisers, lenders, and buyer's agents. When a buyer's lender evaluates this market, RASM data is what they reference. Pricing aligned with RASM benchmarks survives appraisal. |
| Redfin — Sarasota County & North Port Housing Market January 2026 |
Year-over-year median price change, median days on market, and list-to-sale ratio for the county and city levels. | Provides the directional trend context — specifically the 5.2% year-over-year price decline in Sarasota County and the 9.3% decline in North Port specifically. These figures establish why the prior list price of $364,900 (set in an earlier market) is no longer supportable. |
| Sarasota Homes Group — Associate Broker Commentary January 2026 |
Active practitioner interpretation of local market conditions: negotiation rates, buyer behavior, and the effect of overpricing on final net proceeds. | Ground-level confirmation that the quantitative patterns in the MLS data match what agents are experiencing in live transactions — specifically, that overpriced listings chase the market down and that buyers are negotiating approximately 9% off list price on average. |
| City of North Port Permit Records | Official permit issuance data confirming the 2016 HVAC replacement at 9367 Hawk Nest Lane. | Replaces assumption with documented fact. A buyer's home inspector will find this system and report its age. Having permit confirmation at the time of listing removes it as a negotiating point and supports the asking price. |
| Sarasota County Property Appraiser / Public Records | Lot dimensions, building square footage, parcel number, and tax assessment data. | Confirms the 5,014 sq ft corner lot — measurably larger than adjacent non-corner Hawk Nest Lane parcels (3,891–3,961 sq ft) — and establishes the factual basis for the corner lot adjustment in the pricing analysis. |
| Stellar MLS Aggregators — Homes by Marco, Redfin, BEX Realty | Community-specific closed sales data for Talon Bay, including address-level sold prices, square footage, and dates for the villa section specifically. | The county-level data sets the framework; the community-level comp data sets the ceiling and floor. Both must be consistent with each other for a pricing recommendation to be defensible — and in this case, they are. |
Why This Methodology Matters to You as the Seller
You have a specific financial objective: maximize net proceeds to fund senior living expenses, within a three-week listing window. That objective has no room for the most common seller mistake in this market — pricing based on what you hope the market will pay rather than what the data shows it actually pays.
Every source in this analysis was selected because it reflects completed transactions, not asking prices. Active listing prices tell you what sellers want. Closed transaction data tells you what buyers agreed to pay — and those two numbers diverge significantly in the current North Port market. The weekly Stellar MLS snapshots reveal that North Port CTV properties priced above their comp set have been sitting for 137, 159, and 322 days before closing. The subject property's own cancelled listing at $364,900 is itself a data point in that same pattern.
The methodology in this report is designed to answer one question precisely: at what price does 9367 Hawk Nest Lane attract a qualified, motivated buyer within the seller's timeframe, while protecting the maximum achievable net proceeds? That question is answered with transaction data from this community, this property type, and this market window — not with national trends, automated estimates, or comparisons to homes with features this property does not have.
Multiple independent weekly data sets from Stellar MLS — reported by Team Renick Analytics from March 1 through April 11, 2026 — establish a consistent and measurable pattern for when attached homes (condos, townhomes, and villas, or "CTV") stall in the North Port–Sarasota MSA. The pattern is not ambiguous.
North Port CTV Days on Market by Week (March–April 2026, Stellar MLS)
| Week | North Port CTV Closings | Median DOM | What the DOM Tells Us |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1–7, 2026 | 1 closing | 137 days | Property sat through multiple months before finally closing — classic overpricing pattern |
| Mar 8–14, 2026 | 1 closing | 159 days | Another stalled listing finally clearing — originally listed at a price the market rejected |
| Mar 15–21, 2026 | 3 closings | 31 days | Priced at or within the comp set from day one — buyers responded quickly |
| Mar 22–28, 2026 | 3 closings | 322 days | These listings first hit the market in approximately April–May 2025 — the same window as MLS A4638773. Nearly a full year to close. |
| Mar 29–Apr 4, 2026 | 3 closings | 100.5 days (all property types, North Port) | Elevated average pulled by slow-moving overpriced inventory still working through the system |
| Apr 5–11, 2026 | 2 closings | 31.5 days | Most recent week — correctly priced properties moving in under 5 weeks |
Source: Team Renick Sarasota County Weekly Market Snapshots, Stellar MLS data, March 1 – April 11, 2026
County-Wide CTV Price Band Analysis: Where DOM Accelerates vs. Stalls
Across five consecutive weekly Stellar MLS snapshots (March 1 – April 11, 2026), the same price band DOM pattern repeats consistently:
| Price Band (CTV) | Median DOM Range (March–April 2026) | Volume | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $250,000 | 41–118 days | Low–moderate | Variable — inventory thin, condition-driven |
| $250,000–$500,000 | 53–67 days | Highest (34–65 closings/week) | Market's highest-volume, best-velocity band — where this property must be priced to compete |
Source: Team Renick Sarasota County Market Snapshots (Stellar MLS), March 1 – April 11, 2026; multiple weekly reports
Confirmed Sold Comps — North Port Non-Golf Villas (3/2, 1,400–1,800 Sq Ft)
| Address | Sold Date | Sold Price | Sq Ft | $/SqFt | Community | Notes vs. Subject |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8601 Eagle Bay Ct, North Port | Apr 30, 2025 | $316,925 | 1,637 | $194 | Talon Bay (villa section) | Closest comp. 6 sq ft smaller than subject; same villa section; same community. Talon Bay villa, no water view noted. |
| 9263 Peregrine Way, North Port | Apr 30, 2025 | $316,925 | 1,550 | $204 | Talon Bay (villa/attached section) | Smaller sq ft; same community; slightly higher $/sqft due to smaller size. Same amenity package, no CDD. |
| 9020 Eagle Bay Ct, North Port | Dec 5, 2025 | $298,000 | ~1,661 | ~$179 | Talon Bay (villa section) | Most recent Talon Bay villa comp (December 2025). 18 sq ft larger than subject. Sold 6% below 8601 Eagle Bay — condition or motivation likely factor. Represents the current floor. |
Source: Redfin / Stellar MLS aggregators; Homes by Marco; public records
Active Listings That Have NOT Sold — Stall Examples in Talon Bay (April 2026)
| Address | List Price | $/SqFt | Sq Ft | Status | Why It Is Sitting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9847 Hawk Nest Ln (same street) | $399,999 | $296 | 1,349 | Active — unsold as of April 2026 | Asking $83K more than subject's prior list price for 300 fewer sq ft. Fully renovated with water view, granite, new appliances, LVP — and still not sold. Confirms buyers in this community reject pricing that outpaces comp data, even with upgrades. |
| 9367 Hawk Nest Ln (subject property) | $364,900 (listed Feb 2025) | $222 | 1,643 | Cancelled — MLS A4638773 | Listed $48,000–$66,000 above what comparable Talon Bay villa closings supported. Market provided clear feedback: no sale. The cancelled listing is itself a comp data point confirming the stall threshold. |
What the Data Tells Us About the Stall Price Threshold for This Property
The three Talon Bay villa comps that actually sold — 8601 Eagle Bay Ct, 9263 Peregrine Way, and 9020 Eagle Bay Ct — establish a specific sold-price range of $298,000–$316,925 for 3/2 villas of 1,550–1,661 sq ft in this community. Applying those comps to the subject property at 1,643 sq ft:
Talon Bay villa comps, 2025–Dec 2025
by 1,643 sqft × $179–$204
this specific product stalls
The Prior Listing at $364,900 in Context
The cancelled MLS A4638773 listed this property at $364,900 in February 2025. At that time, the market was already correcting. North Port's average home value is currently $318,081, down 9.3% over the past year — meaning values declined further after the property was listed. Sarasota County CTV sellers received 91.2% of original list price in January 2026, meaning even properties that eventually sold at or near $364,900 were negotiating down from higher asking prices. A listing that starts above the comp ceiling doesn't just sit — it actively signals buyer-side agents to skip it or negotiate aggressively.
As Sarasota Homes Group Associate Broker Bill McCue stated in his January 2026 market commentary: "Overpricing will extend your time on market and force reductions. Overpriced units sit and chase the market down." The prior listing history of 9367 Hawk Nest Lane is a direct example of exactly that dynamic.
The base comp range of $298,000–$316,925 is adjusted for the following confirmed and verifiable property characteristics of 9367 Hawk Nest Lane:
| Factor | Direction | Basis | Estimated Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corner lot (5,014 sq ft vs. ~3,891–3,961 sq ft for interior Hawk Nest Ln units) | ▲ Positive | Corner lot provides additional separation, natural light, and is the largest lot size on Hawk Nest Ln per public records | +$5,000–$8,000 |
| HVAC replaced 2016 (confirmed, City of North Port permit records) | ▲ Positive | 10-year-old system removes a common inspection negotiation point; shows owner diligence. Florida buyers specifically ask about HVAC age and condition. | +$3,000–$5,000 (in preserved net vs. concession) |
| Original owner since 2006 — 20-year tenure | ▲ Neutral to positive | Signals personal care and investment in property. No investor/tenant wear. Buyer perception positive. | +$0–$3,000 (perception, not appraisal-adjustable) |
| Partial furnishings (details unspecified) | ▲ Neutral to positive | Convenience value for snowbird/relocating buyers; no dollar impact on appraisal, but may shorten DOM by attracting turnkey-seeking buyers | +$0 on appraised value; DOM benefit only |
| No documented kitchen, bath, or flooring upgrades | ▼ Negative vs. comps with renovations | 2006 original finishes at 20 years are increasingly what buyers negotiate against. Active listing 9847 Hawk Nest Ln was fully renovated and is still unsold at $399K — shows upgrades don't guarantee sale at premium, but their absence limits ceiling price. | Limits ceiling to comp set; no upward adjustment |
| No water view confirmed | ▼ Neutral (no premium) | Corner lot of Hawk Nest Ln — view is likely street/landscape, not lake. Lake-view units command 10–15% premium in Talon Bay per active listing data. | No adjustment from base comp |
| Barrel tile roof — original 2006 (~20 years old) | ▼ Negative / Risk factor | Florida insurers and buyers scrutinize roofs 15+ years old. Without a clean wind mitigation inspection in hand at listing, this is the single largest buyer objection for 2026 listings. | 0 if clean inspection is provided; −$10,000–$20,000 if not addressed pre-listing |
What the Data Shows — No Aspirational Adjustments
Above closed comp ceiling for this product type. No sold comp support within Talon Bay villa section. Replicates the dynamic that produced the cancelled MLS A4638773.
Bracketed by 8601 Eagle Bay Ct ($316,925 / $194/sqft) on the low end and corner lot / HVAC premium on the high end. Consistent with the North Port CTV $250K–$500K band median DOM of 53–67 days.
Priced at or slightly below the December 2025 Talon Bay villa comp ($298,000). Maximizes showing volume, reduces negotiation leverage for buyers, and targets sub-30-day contract timeline. Appropriate if seller has a hard closing-date requirement.
Supporting Data for the $315,000–$329,000 Range
- Villas in Sarasota County closed at a $315,000 median in 55 days during the week of April 5–11, 2026, the most current week available.
- The week of March 22–28, 2026, villas county-wide posted 38 sales at 56 days median DOM and a $315,000 median price — the same $315,000 figure appearing consistently across multiple reporting periods.
- The week of March 29–April 4, 2026, villas county-wide had 36 sales at 67.5 days median DOM and a $347,500 median price — the upper end of this range reflects communities with more upgrades or water views, not applicable to the subject without documented renovations.
- Sarasota County home prices were down 5.2% year-over-year as of January 2026 per Redfin, with homes selling after a median of 63 days on market.
- Sarasota County sellers received a median of 93.7% of their original list price in January 2026. At a $329,000 list price, 93.7% yields a projected sale price of approximately $308,000 — which aligns directly with the December 2025 Talon Bay villa comp of $298,000–$316,925, confirming internal consistency.
- Accurate pricing remains critical: the market is achieving 95.9% of list price for properties that move efficiently, meaning overpriced listings are being left behind.
Why the March 22–28 North Port CTV Result (322 Days) Matters Directly
North Port recorded 3 CTV sales at 322 days median DOM during the week of March 22–28, 2026. A 322-day median represents properties that were first listed in roughly April–May 2025 — the same window the prior listing of 9367 Hawk Nest Ln was active. These are the exact comps of what happens to North Port CTV listings that are priced at or above the stall threshold: they sit through the spring season, carry into summer, see price reductions, and eventually close at a price that would have been achievable on day one. The difference is months of carrying costs, HOA dues, taxes, insurance — and a stigmatized DOM history that gives buyers additional negotiating leverage.
| Line Item | Data-Supported Price ($329,000) | Stall Scenario ($364,900 relisted) |
|---|---|---|
| List Price | $329,000 | $364,900 |
| Expected Sale Price (95.9% of list if priced correctly; 89–91% of original list after reductions in stall scenario) |
~$315,700 | ~$324,400–$331,000 (after 1–2 price reductions) |
| Agent Commission (est. 5–6%) | ($15,785) | ($16,220–$16,550) |
| Closing Costs / Doc Stamps / Title (~1.5–2%) | ($5,100) | ($5,200–$5,300) |
| Additional Carrying Costs During Extended DOM (HOA ~$400/mo + taxes ~$290/mo + insurance ~$300/mo) |
~($2,000) — 45-day DOM | ~($8,000–$11,000) — 150–270 day DOM |
| Seller Concessions (more likely in stall scenario as buyer leverage grows) | ~($0–$2,000) | ~($5,000–$10,000) |
| Estimated Net Proceeds | ~$292,000–$295,000 | ~$282,000–$294,000 (overlapping at best; lower at worst) |
| Estimated Time to Close | 30–60 days from listing | 150–322+ days — with no guarantee |
Carrying cost calculation: HOA (estimated villa section ~$400/mo) + prorated property tax ($3,491/yr ÷ 12 = $291/mo) + homeowner insurance (~$300/mo) = ~$991/month. Doc stamps on deed: $0.70 per $100 of sale price.